• Objective:
    • A compounding strategy targeting very small priced but highly likely winning selections
    • Less than 7 goals in the chosen matches required to win
    • The full return, stake and profit, of each bet is rolled over into the next one
  • Trade/Market:
    • Back bet is placed in “Under 6.5 Goals” market or similar
  • Entry Criteria:
    • Match selection based on the 100 Bet Challenges shortlisted selections
    • Entry can be made pre-match or can be entered after a goal is scored, the latter option will move the price higher if the first goal is scored early enough
    • Price for the Back bet is (on average) £1.035 . This can be staked pre-game and in some cases even matched pre-match. Remember to tick the “Keep” button and update if not matched immediately.
  • Exit Criteria:
    • No trade out required. Trade is won as long as the match ends with less than 7 goals
  • Insurance/Mitigation Actions:
    • None are recommended for this strategy

Overview

This strategy continually compounds the return, or you can think of it as an ongoing accumulator. That is you make your first bet and once it wins, you add the winnings (less commission) to your original stake on the 2nd bet, then continue in this way until the target is hit. Illustrated below.

This strategy is named the 100 bet challenge due to a target of backing 100 consecutive winners. Starting with a 1 point stake for Bet #1 and assuming an average price of £1.035 on a successful a run of 100 consecutive winners will nett you ~30 points profit. In real terms, if you start with a £10 stake then you would have ~£300 by bet #100. The figures quoted here assume a 2% commission rate on the betting exchange.

The market used, “Under 6.5 Goals” (or similar), has a very small price but has a very high likelihood of winning. The “(or similar)” is mentioned as in some cases you may be able to get the target price on a different market, ideally one with higher goals e.g. “Under 7.5 Goals” or even higher.

Obviously, if any matches end with 7 goals or more then you will lose and will need to start the run again.

Outlined here is the basic framework of how to make this strategy profitable. Depending on what you consider acceptable risk/reward then you may wish to adjust this strategy to suit, a few suggestions:

  • make the run shorter or longer than the mentioned 100
  • increase the starting stake to get the bank growing more quickly
  • accept lower or higher odds per bet. Lower will make it easier to get more matches and reduce risk and will open up a lot more chances to enter markets with a higher goals limit (“Under 7.5 Goals” or even higher), and the opposite is true for these factors with higher odds.
  • enter matches in-play after the first goals is scored to get better prices. This is only effective if the first goal, or goals, are scored early enough. Also requires a lot of time to observe the matches in-play.

In terms of timeline, our experience has shown that a 100 bet run can be completed in around 2 months.