Trading Explained

Armed with the understanding of how each of the bets, Back and Lay, work on their own this section explains how we can combine them as a match progresses to trade profitably and reduce risks as matches progress.
The red line in the screenshot below illustrates what happens to the price in the Over goals markets as a game progresses. In this case it’s the Over 1.5 Goals price, but others such as the markets for 0.5 and 2.5 will follow the same trend and logic.
The X-axis is based on time, from before kick-off as the market forms up to about ~79 minutes of the match itself. The Y=axis is the price for Over 1.5 Goals.

Below I added some markers to explain what happened in this match.

1. Up until the game kicked off the price was moving around in a range up to £1.20 range. That is probably a little below average for this market. What we read into this is that the market was very confident that 2 or more goals will be scored.
2. After the match kicked off the price started to rise up until a goal was scored by Warriors (on 37 minutes). This rise reflects the decreasing likelihood of 2 goals (or more) being scored as the time available decreases. Once the first goal is scored there is a major price drop, from ~£1.65 down to ~£1.17. This reflects the market now seeing an increased likelihood of the targeted 2 goals or more being scored in the match.
3. Following the price drop, and in the absence of a 2^nd goal, the price again starts to rise. This time the rise goes steadily from ~£1.17 up to ~£2.10. At this point, which was 79 minutes into the match, Geylang scored an equaliser.
4. This was the 2^nd goal in the match and hence meant this market was then closed, due to Over 1.5 Goals being scored. All matched Backs and Lays were settled based on Over 1.5 Goals being scored. I.e:
   • If you had a Back on Over 1.5 Goals it was a winner
   • If you had a Lay on Over 1.5 Goals it was a loser

To successfully trade this game there are basically two options. Both explained below. Each has its merits and drawbacks and how you chose to play will be a personal preference and in some cases you may not have a choice.

• Option 1: Set and forget

• Option 2: Trading after 1^st goal

Option 1: Over 1.5 Goals Trading – Set and forget

This option only requires a Back bet to be placed. Then all that is required is 2 or more goals are scored in the match after the Back gets matched to secure a winner. Here’s the steps involved.

1. Identify your match to trade for Over 1.5 goals from the Matchbook shortlists. In this case I chose the Warriors FC vs Geylang International fixture
2. On the exchange, Betfair in this case, check the available prices before kick-off. Below is the screenshot for the Warriors FC vs Geylang match and £1.17 was available for Over 1.5 Goals.

1. £1.17 is too low for a decent profit. I decided to set a price of £1.55. As long as there is no goal scored, I should get matched well before half time. If there is an early goal then I would cancel my Back bet and move onto another match. Here’s the screenshot for my Back bet. Important to note that I ticked the ‘Keep’ button to ensure that this request is kept after the match goes in-play (kicks off).

1. By 31 minutes, there had been no goal and my Back bet was matched, screenshot below. Then it’s just a case of waiting for the goals to be scored.

1. As we saw above, the first goal was scored on 37 minutes and a second on 79. As per the screenshot below, the market is then closed and Over 1.5 Goals is a winner. The profit is shown in the right-hand pane, £2.75 (commission is to be deducted from this).

Option 2: Over 1.5 Goals Trading – Trading after 1st Goal

This alternative option, offers a slightly more cautious approach of how to trade matches seeking multiple goals. This method will reduce your potential profits but has the bonus of ensuring, as a minimum, the return of your stake.

If we get a 1^st goal scored early enough we have the option to place a Lay bet. The Lay bet can be played in 2 ways:

• a) To ensure the return of your stake if the required number of goals are not scored and profit if the number of goals are scored (another way is to consider this a free bet)
• b) To lock in profit regardless of whether the required number of goals is or is not scored

From these choices, a) will return more profit than b) if the required goals are scored.

Below is an example of a match I traded in China using Option a).

The match had reached late in the first half without a goal being scored and I was able to secure a price of £2.10 for Over 1.5 Goals, I backed Over 1.5 Goals for a £5 stake.

The first goal was scored on 55 minutes by Shanghai and as we know this caused a major drop in the price for Over 1.5 Goals, here’s the chart from Betfair:

At this point I placed a Lay bet with a stake, £5, equal to that of my original Back bet at a price of £1.36:

To summarise my open bets at this point:

A Back bet on Over 1.5 Goals => £5 @ £2.10

• If the match ends with Over 1.5 Goals => Profit = £5.50
• If the match ends with Under 1.5 Goals => Profit = -£5.00

A Lay bet on Over 1.5 Goals => £5 @ £1.36

• If the match ends with Over 1.5 Goals => Profit =-£1.78
• If the match ends with Under 1.5 Goals => Profit = £5.00

From the table below you can see the overall net positions, when the Back and Lay bet profits are combined, depending on whether the match ends with over or under 1.5 goals.

Match Ends	Back Bet Profit	Lay Bet Profit	Net Position
Over 1.5 Goals	£5.50	-£1.78	= £3.22
Under 1.5 Goals	-£5.00	£5.00	= £0.00

The worst position I can now finish in is if the match ends with Under 1.5 goals. In this case, the back bet loses, I lose my stake £5, however, the Lay bet wins £5. My net position is £0 (also known as scratch).

Conversely, if the match ends with Over 1.5 goals I secure some good profit. My Back bet wins with a profit of £5.50 (plus I get my stake returned), but my Lay bet loses with a liability of £1.78. My net position is a profit of £3.22.

There was indeed a 2^nd goal in the match and Over 1.5 Goals was the winner.

Here’s an explanation of how to trade this match using option b), that is to lock in profit after the 1^st goal regardless of the final outcome.

With option a), the stake of Lay bet placed was equal to the stake placed for the Back bet. This ensured our worst position at the end of the match was £0, the back bet lost and the Lay bet won. With the stakes being the same they cancelled each other out.

For option b), if we place a Lay stake greater than our Back stake then we can lock in profit regardless of the final outcome. To determine the exact amount to Lay you can use a hedging calculator, such as the one on the smarkets website (https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115002171411-Hedging-calculator).

Here’s the screenshot with the stakes, prices and Betfair commission (5%) from the match used above:

This is telling us that we should Lay a stake of £7.52 at a price of £1.36 and this will ensure a profit of £2.52 on either outcome.

Summary

To summarise the options explained above, you can consider Option 1 (set and forget) as the one which will undoubtedly return most profit, however, this also comes with more risk. Conversely, Option 2 (trading after the 1^st goal) reduces profit but also significantly reduces risk.

In some cases you may be forced into relying on Option 1 if the 1^st goal is not scored early enough. In order to trade after the 1^st goal and to be profitable, the Lay bet must be at a price lower than that at which you placed your back. When using Option 2, then the closer the 1^st goal is scored to the time at which you place your back will result in the larger profits.

Considering Option 2 for the Over 2.5 goals market then, depending on match circumstances, you could have two opportunities to trade out. As with Over 1.5 Goals, it is all about timing of goals and the price at which you place the back but you may be able to trade out after the first or second goal.