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Objective Over 2.5 Goals Strategy:

  • Three goals during a match.

Trade/Market Over 2.5 Goals :

  • Back and Lay bets are placed in “Over 2.5 Goals” market
  • Check all Over 2.5 Goals Matches Here

Entry Criteria for Over 2.5 Goals:

  • Match selection based on the Over 2.5 Goals shortlisted selections
  • Score is 0-0

Price for the Back bet:

  • absolute minimum: Min Back (from the shortlist) +10%
  • recommended: £1.80 or higher
Exit Criteria for Over 2.5 Goals Strategy:
  • Trade out (Lay) after 1st or 2nd goal or can be set and forget
Insurance/Mitigation Actions:
  • if 0-0 late in the game:
    • Lay the draw, or
    • Lay the current score, or
    • Back Over 0.5 Goals
  • if 1-0 or 0-1 late in the game and you haven’t traded out:
    • Lay the current score, or
    • Back Over 1.5 Goals

Description of Over 2.5 Goals Strategy

Looking for three goals during the selected match at any time after the trade is placed, there is no dependency on which team scores the goals. Either team can score both goals or one goal from each team.

The price at which to enter this trade will be heavily influenced by personal preference, pre-match price for Over 2.5 goals and also what happens in-play prior to entering. You should never enter an FT25 trade below what is shown in the shortlist for “Min Odd (Back)” +10%. Its recommended to wait for the price to rise to £1.85 or even higher. How long you have to wait will depend on the price at kick off.

This strategy also offers the chance to trade out if a first goal is scored early enough after entering the trade. After a goal is scored in the match, the price for the “Over 2.5 Goals” will drop significantly and if scored early enough this affords us the chance to trade out. We need the price to drop below that at which the initial Back bet was placed.

The trade out can be played in two ways:

  1. placing a Lay bet on “Over 2.5 Goals” equal to the stake placed for the initial Back bet. This method guarantees the return of your stake, even if a 3rd goal is not scored, and if a 3rd goal is scored generates profit
  2. placing a Lay bet on “Over 2.5 Goals” greater than the stake placed for the initial Back bet. This method locks in profit immediately, regardless of whether a 4th goal is scored.

Both methods are described in the introduction section.

As a reminder, which option you chose is down to personal preference and remember there is also the option to let the bet run to the end of the match to secure maximum profit, the risk of that is that you will lose your stake if there is no 3rd goal is scored. If the 1st goal doesn’t come soon enough, then the choice to trade out is gone. Remember, in order to trade out you will need the Lay price to drop below the price at which you placed your initial Back.

Trading Over 2.5 Goals Strategy

Pre-Game

For this match, the price was £1.85 to back over 2.5 Goals before the match started.

Setting up the Trade for over 2.5 goals

In this example, the trade was setup before kick-off. As can be seen on the right-hand side of the screenshot below, “Over 2.5 Goals” is backed at a price of £1.85. Note that the “Keep” box is checked and the “Update” button pressed to ensure that the bet is kept once the match goes in-play.

At this point the bet is unmatched, meaning you have not yet actually entered a trade.

Getting Matched for over 2.5 goals

Once the match kicks off, and as long as neither team scores, then the price for “Over 2.5 Goals” starts to drift towards the target price (of £1.85). In this match, the back bet placed got matched after ~31 minutes of play.

The bet getting matched is shown by the presence of the yellow “Cash Out” button in the left-hand pane and the status changing in the Open Bets tab in the right-hand pane to Matched bets.

Once your bet is matched, Betfair shows your profit/loss scenarios on each outcome in this market. Profit scenarios are shown in green and losses in red. For this bet:

  • if the match ends without the required 3 goals, or “Under 3.5 Goals”, then the net result is a loss of £5 (the stake). As denoted by the £5.00 in red text.
  • if the match ends with two (or more goals), or “Over 3.5 Goals”, then the result is a profit of £4.25 (£5 x £1.85 – £5 stake = £4.25). As denoted by the £4.35 in green text.

If a goal would have been scored before 31 minutes of play, i.e. before the bet got matched, then the price would have dropped considerably, probably close to the pre-game price. In this case, you can either cancel your bet and move on to the next trade or you could let it run. If you let it run then there is a chance you can get matched late in the game, likely 80+ minutes, as long as no more goals are scored in the meantime. If there is a 3rd goal, then the market becomes closed and your bet is void.

Reacting to Goals

As described above, when the first goal is scored and if it happens close enough to when you entered the trade causing the Lay price for Over 2.5 Goals to drop below that at which you place your back then you have 3 choices:

  1. Lay for a stake equal to your back stake
  2. Lay for a stake greater than your back stake
  3. Do nothing and let the bet run

If the Lay price does not drop below your back price then you have no decision to make.

There will be cases where, after the 1st and 2nd goals, the Lay price drops to a level only marginally lower than your back price, this means you would get a very small profit. In this type of case you have to make a call. If there is plenty of time left and in-play stats are suggesting the teams are trying to score then it could be worth letting the bet run in the hope that a 3rd goal is scored to secure some decent profit. The other option is to at least secure the return of your stake for the Back bet, this means you don’t lose anything and your bank remains the same.

In this particular match, the first goal was scored after 37 minutes.

And as shown in the chart below, this caused the price to drop down to the ~£1.25 range. In this case, I had all 3 options mentioned above available to me. I decided to do nothing and let the bet run, option 3.

Winning the Trade

I made the right choice; a second goal was scored ~79 minutes and 3rd goal in ~82 minutes. This ensured I got maximum profit in this case. Bear in mind if there had been no third goal then I would have lost my stake.

additional stake you are willing to risk. There are no guarantees on a late goal being scored.